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Jordan Bain

Jordan Bain Research · Annual Report

Edition 01 · Australia & New Zealand

The State of Modern Prospecting 2026

How homeowners actually choose an agent, built from campaign data and eight years of implementation work, not opinion.

Download the report ↓The five findings ↘

Contents

  1. 01The five findings
  2. 02Executive summary
  3. 03Key findings
  4. 04Industry shifts
  5. 05Consumer behaviour
  6. 06Benchmarks
  7. 07Predictions
  8. 08Download the report
Published
August 2026
Length
38 pages
Reading time
26 min
Dataset
Campaign + practice

A note on evidence: figures in this report are first-party, drawn from Jordan Bain / PocketAppraisal campaign data. Basis: eight years, several hundred agent campaigns across Australian and New Zealand metro and regional markets. Benchmarks are published as quartile ranges, not single-point averages. No figure is drawn from third-party research.

Section 01 · The 90-second read

Five findings defining how agents are being chosen in 2026

Each one in three lines: what we found, what it rests on, and why it matters. The full evidence follows.

  1. 0111–24 months

    The decision forms long before the call.

    Field observation
    The window between first observable engagement and an appraisal request, across campaigns run over eight years. A range, not an average.
    Implication
    Activity is being judged inside a month against a decision that takes a year or more to form.
    Finding 01 in full ↘
  2. 02Month 4

    Agents abandon strategy just before it compounds.

    Field observation
    Where changes of direction cluster in campaigns Jordan has run, set against the point enquiry typically begins to move.
    Implication
    The most common cause of a failed campaign is its age, not its build.
    Finding 02 in full ↘
  3. 033 of 4

    Frequency, not budget, separates quartiles.

    Campaign data
    Three of the four benchmark measures separating the top quartile from the bottom are frequency, territory size and campaign age. Spend is not one of them.
    Implication
    A bigger budget is the least available lever and the least predictive one.
    Finding 03 in full ↘
  4. 04800 > 3,000

    A narrow territory covered well beats a wide one covered thinly.

    Campaign data
    Core-area size against enquiry across campaigns: top-quartile areas sit at 1,200–1,500 homes, bottom-quartile above 3,000.
    Implication
    Halving the territory is usually cheaper and faster than doubling the budget.
    Finding 04 in full ↘
  5. 06The gap

    The industry still measures a 30-day window.

    Interpretation
    Jordan's reading of findings 01 and 02 together: a measurement window of thirty days against a decision window of eleven to twenty-four months.
    Implication
    Changing the review period changes which campaigns look like failures.
    Finding 06 in full ↘

Registers are not equivalent. Campaign data is measured in the accounts named in the method. Field observation is a pattern seen repeatedly but not formally sampled. Interpretation is Jordan reading two findings against each other. No figure in this report comes from survey or third-party research.

Section 02

Executive summary

The listing decision has moved earlier and the industry has not moved with it. Homeowners now shortlist over years, largely in private, and reach out to confirm a choice rather than to make one.

Campaign results are still judged inside thirty days. That single habit is this year's costliest error: good strategies are abandoned at month four in favour of whichever agent is loudest that month.

What this report is

  • Observed

    Drawn from live campaigns, not survey sentiment.

  • Ranged

    Benchmarks are quartiles; the spread is usually the finding.

  • Limited

    Stated method, dataset and open questions.

Section 03

Key findings in full

Six results that held across markets, price points and agency structures, with the evidence behind each.

Method: eight years, several hundred campaigns across Australia and New Zealand. Register is stated per finding.

0111–24 months

The decision forms long before the call.

Most of the deciding happens without the agent present. The appraisal confirms a choice already made.

Field observation
The window between first observable engagement and an appraisal request, across campaigns run over eight years. A range, not an average.
Implication
Activity is being judged inside a month against a decision that takes a year or more to form.
02Month 4

Agents abandon strategy just before it compounds.

Changes of direction cluster right where familiarity starts to return enquiry. Outperforming campaigns are rarely better built. They are usually just older.

Field observation
Where changes of direction cluster in campaigns Jordan has run, set against the point enquiry typically begins to move.
Implication
The most common cause of a failed campaign is its age, not its build.
033 of 4

Frequency, not budget, separates quartiles.

The top quartile does not spend materially more. It shows up at a steady frequency, in a narrower territory, for longer.

Campaign data
Three of the four benchmark measures separating the top quartile from the bottom are frequency, territory size and campaign age. Spend is not one of them.
Implication
A bigger budget is the least available lever and the least predictive one.
04800 > 3,000

A narrow territory covered well beats a wide one covered thinly.

Coverage depth predicts enquiry better than audience size. Most agents choose a territory too large to be remembered in.

Campaign data
Core-area size against enquiry across campaigns: top-quartile areas sit at 1,200–1,500 homes, bottom-quartile above 3,000.
Implication
Halving the territory is usually cheaper and faster than doubling the budget.
05Week 3

Creative fatigue arrives on schedule.

Decay is predictable enough to plan for. Agents who rotate on a calendar outperform agents who rotate on panic.

Campaign data
Rotation intervals in the top quartile sit near three weeks; the bottom quartile rotates ad hoc.
Implication
Fatigue is a scheduling problem, so it can be solved before it shows up in the numbers.
06The gap

The industry still measures a 30-day window.

Prospecting is judged on a horizon shorter than the behaviour it tries to influence. That mismatch explains most abandoned campaigns.

Interpretation
Jordan's reading of findings 01 and 02 together: a measurement window of thirty days against a decision window of eleven to twenty-four months.
Implication
Changing the review period changes which campaigns look like failures.
Download the full report ↓

All six findings, with method and benchmarks, in one PDF.

Section 04

Industry shifts

Five movements arguable in 2022, difficult to argue with now.

Interruption → Familiarity

Cold contact still works, at falling efficiency and rising cost. Familiarity built in advance does the same job for less friction.

Volume → Relevance

Activity targets were a proxy for reach when reach was expensive. Reach is now cheap; attention is not.

Campaigns → Presence

A campaign has a start and an end. A presence is what a homeowner has already absorbed by the time they consider selling.

Rented audiences → Owned assets

Portals rent attention for the length of a listing. Agents compounding fastest are building assets that outlive it.

Opinion → Evidence

The strongest operators hold their own numbers and argue with them. Instinct sets the hypothesis; data settles it.

Section 05

Consumer behaviour

What homeowners do in the quiet years, before any enquiry is made.

Research is continuous

Homeowners check their value and watch a street long before any intention to sell exists.

Recall is unprompted

Asked who they'd call, homeowners name one agent quickly and struggle for a second. Position one is the only one with commercial value.

Curiosity precedes intent

The first move is almost never an enquiry. It is a small, private act of curiosity: a price check, a comparable sale, a video watched to the end.

Proof beats promise

Claims about service are discounted on arrival. Observable evidence (results, presence, consistency) survives the shortlist.

Limits: drawn from campaign engagement and recall in conversation. Patterns, not causation for any individual listing.

Section 06

Benchmarks

Published as quartiles. Find yourself in the column, not the average.

Digital core area

Bottom quartile3,000+ homes
Median1,800 homes
Top quartile1,200–1,500 homes

Effective frequency (monthly)

Bottom quartile1–2
Median3–4
Top quartile6–8

Creative rotation

Bottom quartileAd hoc
Median6–8 weeks
Top quartile3 weeks

Campaign age at review

Bottom quartile< 4 months
Median6 months
Top quartile12+ months

Appraisal enquiry attribution

Bottom quartileNot tracked
MedianLast click
Top quartileWindow-based

Limits: metro and regional core areas of roughly 1,200–3,000 homes. No offline attribution.

Section 07

Predictions

Stated plainly so they can be checked against next year's edition.

2026

Attribution windows lengthen.

Agencies stop judging prospecting on the month it ran and start measuring over the year or more in which a listing decision actually forms.

2027

Core areas become standard equipment.

The digital equivalent of a farm area moves from advantage to baseline. The differentiator shifts from having one to holding it long enough.

2027

Intent signals get priced.

Repeat address lookups and comparable views become tradeable signals. The risk is acting on noise; the winners act on combinations.

2028

The database splits from the audience.

Agencies will report contactable audience separately from contact count. A list nobody hears from stops predicting listing volume.

2028

Personal brand consolidates faster than office brand.

Where an agent's presence outlives their agency, recruitment economics change. Principals either invest in agent-owned assets or lose the agent.

Section 08

Download the full report

Thirty-eight pages: method, full benchmark tables and the open questions. No form, no gate.

Download PDF ↓Read the methodology ↘

Also in the library

Implementation

The Launchpad

We build it. Test it. Hand it over. No retainer.

Book a strategy call ↗Read the framework ↘

Supporting technology

PocketAppraisal

An instant appraisal a homeowner runs on their own address. One step of the framework, as software.

Australia ↗New Zealand ↗