Patience.

Too early, they're not interested. Too late, you're just another agent calling.

In between is the gap. And almost nobody's working it.

Most prospecting lands at one end or the other. The cold call to an owner with no plans to move. Or the scramble when a property's about to list and every agent in the area wants the appraisal. The gap is the long stretch where owners are thinking about their home but aren't ready to talk to anyone.

It's easy to see why nobody's there. Nothing in the gap feels urgent. Nobody's asking for an appraisal, no listing is close, and the work doesn't show up in this month's numbers.

But that's where the next two to three years will be won.

The urgency habit

Sure, a few agents know how to manage a pipeline. But since COVID, agents have become lazy. They're pushing urgency in a market that's asking for patience.

Most of your competition got used to sellers making decisions quickly... because they could. There was a promise of price and strong momentum. So agents didn't need to develop their prospecting skills. They only needed to manage potential sellers for 3 to 4 months, so urgency drove the outcome, not skill and ability.

And now most of the industry is being caught out. Not because of a lack of effort, but because homeowners aren't responding the same as they once did. And the agents who entered the market in the last 6 years have never learnt the art of nurturing a pipeline.

That's why they call it a property cycle though, right?

I've been in this industry for 15 years, and despite the flaws of these markets, they excite me more than any, because they level the playing field. Results for most completely reset, and the new breed of agent emerges.

There's a line everyone puts on Darwin: "It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent. It is the one that is most adaptable to change." He never actually said it. But this market couldn't represent it more.

The best agents won't be the winners in all of this. It'll be the agents who remain visible and useful.

Faster horses

You know the line attributed to Henry Ford: "If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses."

If I had asked agents what they wanted, they would have said more leads.

Here lies the problem. Agents are becoming desperate for more leads, while thousands of contacts sit untouched in their databases. And you can buy pages of new ones for less than what old mate who slid into your DMs charges to set up one Facebook ad.

More leads doesn't mean more listings. And while you're jumping from one guru to the next, your competition is quietly eating your lunch.

Why? Because they understood that in these markets you build, not hunt. Pull, not push.

Signals, not leads

Leads are no longer the goal. Because a lead tells you someone has enough tolerance to fill out a form on Facebook, knowing full well they're about to hear the same call script they've heard since 2019, and enjoys telling you they "never clicked on it", just like they told the 7 agents who ran the same campaigns before you.

The goal now is signals.

Not because agents are still convinced homeowners are morons, and believe that running the same Canva template ad with the suburb and a median sale price in bold font on repeat means they deserve listings from it. But because hard and fast doesn't work anymore. Filling out a form for a "free market appraisal" doesn't give them confidence.

A lead is someone who filled in a form once. A signal is behaviour over time. An owner who checks their value again. Opens the market update you sent. Replies with a question. Asks what sold down the street.

A lead shows curiosity. A signal shows intent.

But intent doesn't always mean instant. It means they're unsure, uncertain or unsettled.

Information is free

And homeowners are already checking. Nearly half of Australian homes, about 5.2 million, are tracked by their owners on realestate.com.au. And 59% of REA's seller leads now come from homeowners using those owner tools. Both figures are from REA Group's 2026 results.

The portals have worked out that the value check is where the selling conversation starts. If that check happens on a portal, the portal has the conversation. Often the lead too.

Your RP Data login isn't an advantage anymore.

Now more than ever, information is free... but how you use that information is what's valuable.

Anyone can check their value online. But what does it mean for them? How are they affected? Why does it matter? Those are insights only an agent on the ground can explain. A portal estimate can't tell an owner whether their renovation will pay for itself.

But instead, everyone is still saying they sold a house in 3 days, expecting everyone to care.

What a price check is really telling you

A price check through you still matters, though.

Why? If so many owners already check their value on the portals, why would they check it with you as well?

Chances are they're hoping for something different. That, my friends, is a signal. Of fear, of doubt, of uncertainty. They're looking for hope, optimistic the other number might be wrong.

And there are reasons for the doubt. Five rate rises this year, the latest on Cup Day, taking the cash rate to its highest level in 18 years. Their partner might've just been laid off. They might need to downsize, or be closer to work, school or family. And they're feeling it every time they fill up their car.

But a lead generation campaign won't tell you this.

Why? Because it's only designed for a single click. It doesn't encourage return visits, or a personal touch. They might check it once, only to feel like another number in your database.

They need security and safety. They need to keep checking, and they need useful information without consequences, without friction or pressure. They need their own property profile. Something they can review regularly, with advice and feedback from you, not just a user ID and a password. Something private and personal. Not another PDF and an automated text message.

The lizard brain

They shouldn't be left with questions found silently online, only to be answered loudly by the media.

A quiet check online can fill them with fear. Rate rises build uncertainty. Inflation drives instability, and the fear only builds. Life gets busy, months pass and the market changes. They check again, and the number on their screen can riddle them with anxiety.

I think that's when decision fatigue sets in, clarity freezes, and all of a sudden their lizard brain kicks in. They can't tell threats from opportunities, so they respond to both the same way.

Instead, you need to be their reminder. Explain and educate. Guide them through with care and confidence, not results and records.

I'd bet many don't care what the neighbour sold for. They care about making sure they're not left homeless. Some probably didn't even see the signboard go up next door, they're that scared.

Call someone

If you're fortunate enough to be in a stable position through this economy, I'm sure you have a friend or family member who can explain that feeling.

A family of 4, a mortgage, school fees, and a single full-time income plus a part-time job to make sure the kids get home safely, dinner is on the table and the washing gets done.

Call them and ask how they're feeling. Only a few will be able to hide it now.

It's likely many have thought about selling, even if they shouldn't. Some may have refinanced just before the rate rises started, knowing a summer holiday was out of the question, so a pool would make up for the sacrificed memories. Only to be left doubting if they'll even make it to Christmas.

So yes, homeowners don't need PocketAppraisal, or any other app, to check their value online. But they do need a guided opinion. A calm voice on their shoulder. Security that they won't just be another number. Confidence that they might be able to manage, and that, like all property cycles, it always comes back around.

So go ahead. Run another lead generation campaign from one of the two dozen "social media bros" doing the same copy and paste campaigns, and watch how many so-called leads answer your call in a month, once they see it was just another real estate tactic.

Or don't...

I've seen this before

Thankfully, during the GFC in 2007, I was still working out how to keep my eyes on the road while using a clutch and changing gears, with my less than enthused mother screaming "brake".

But after the stimulus wound down in 2011/12, I found myself in the boiler room with a desk phone, a headset, a batch of freshly printed landline numbers and Alec Baldwin's voice in my head saying ABC every time I took a sip of coffee (sorry if you're too young to get that one).

Back then people answered the phone. But for my first 12 months, they only wanted to tell me they'd be carried out (of the home they paid 9 shillings and 3 marbles for) in a pine box, or complain about 4% interest rates. Never anything in the middle.

Then came the credit squeeze in 2017/18.

Despite the pinch on hard working Australian families (many of whom I'm surrounded by), as an enthusiast and researcher, I fucking love these markets. They reset the survival of the fittest.

Build, don't hunt

You want to win over the next two to three years? Build, don't hunt. Be smart, use what you've got. Take whatever has been left behind and batten down the hatches, because it's going to be rough, but the rewards will be big.

If you haven't already, you'd better pivot quickly. Once you do, I'll give you your new game plan. It's something I've been talking about for months, but maybe now it's time to pay attention.

It starts with two things.

A clean database. Merge the duplicates, fix the emails that bounce, and know who's a past client, who's had an appraisal and when. A name you've already met is worth more than a stranger from an ad, but only if you can find it.

Strong visibility. A steady, useful presence in front of the owners in that database. What sold nearby, what it means for their home, an honest view when they ask. Not a burst of activity when a listing's up for grabs, but something you can keep doing every week, in any market.

Both can be accelerated through our system, Launchpad. You don't need another overpriced social media guru. You need something manageable and financially efficient.

Then watch for signals. The owner who opens every update, replies with a question or asks what their place might be worth now is telling you something. Call them first.

Patience

Real estate agents have never been known to be patient, and many will end their careers due to it.

But I suggest you tattoo the word "patience" on your forehead, so it's the first thing you see every morning.

We're at the starting line, and it's a marathon, not a sprint.

Jordan Bain